The second most important election next Tuesday.
WSJ Editorial, November 1, 2012
The most important single vote in America next Tuesday, after the
Presidential race, is Governor Jerry Brown's attempt to stick Californians with
another giant tax increase. Mr. Brown and his labor allies say Proposition 30
will fix the state's budget deficit and ward off education cuts. But the real
choice before voters is whether to issue Sacramento's incorrigible spendthrifts
another blank check.
Two years ago the Governor staged a bow to democracy by pledging that he
wouldn't raise taxes without a vote of the people. The truth is he couldn't pick
off enough Republicans in the legislature for a tax increase without delivering
significant pension reforms, which government unions won't allow. Thus the
last-ditch resort to the ballot box.
The Brown-union plan includes a "millionaire's tax" that kicks in at
$250,000, three new income brackets for high earners and an increase in the top
rate to 13.3% from 10.3% for individuals and many small business owners making
more than $1 million. This would give California the highest income tax in the
country, leaping over Hawaii's 11%. Oh, and by the way, these higher rates would
be retroactive to this year.
As the Analyst cautions, due to huge swings in the investment incomes of top
earners and "the uncertainty of their responses to the rate increases, the
revenues raised by this measure are difficult to estimate."
No kidding.
Nearly everyone who has examined California's chronically unbalanced budget
has recommended flattening its steeply progressive tax code to create a more
stable revenue stream.
Mr. Brown himself campaigned for President in 1992 as a
flat-taxer. But Democrats in the legislature won't lower tax rates because they
love the revenue windfalls they get when times are good and they can boost
spending.
Then when markets crash, they can cry havoc and lobby for still-higher taxes.
That's what the teachers unions did as recently as 2008, claiming that cuts that
would have merely returned education spending to pre-bubble levels would cripple
schools. Caving to the union pressure, a handful of Republican legislators in
2009 walked Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's plank and voted for a $13 billion
sales and income tax increase. Schools received less money over the next two
years anyway—while spending on entitlements and union retirement benefits
grew.
Democrats are now back at the same stand. Mr. Brown has threatened to
"trigger" $5.9 billion in education cuts if his initiative fails, but he'd make
less than $100 million in other trims. How's that for balance?
Such "trigger cuts" could easily be re-configured with a modicum of political
will in Sacramento. Instead of slashing $500 million from higher education,
Democrats could kill their quixotic bullet train, which will cost about $360
million this year alone in debt service, and chop $100 million in tax credits to
their Hollywood friends (who are bankrolling the tax campaign).
Or they could restructure retirement benefits, which cost $6.5 billion this
year—up from about $1.4 billion in 1999. There's millions more to be found in
modifying current workers' pensions and retirees' cost-of-living adjustments as
nearly a dozen states have done. In Rhode Island such reforms have cut the
state's pension liability by half.
Barring such reforms, pension costs will continue to balloon and eat up all
new revenues. The California State Teachers' Retirement System has projected
that it will need between $3.5 billion to $10 billion annually over the
next 30 years to stay solvent. So any money allocated to schools will merely
backfill the teachers' pension fund.
Illinois's laboratory of kleptocracy provides an instructive lesson. In
January 2011 Democrats in Springfield raised the state's income tax by 67% and
corporate rate by 46%. Over the next eight months unemployment surged to 10.2%
from 9.4%. So in December lawmakers handed out tax breaks to their corporate
friends who were threatening to flee to more business-friendly states.
Springfield last year spent all $7 billion in new revenues on retirement
benefits and closed out the last fiscal year with another $8 billion deficit.
Lawmakers increased the cigarette tax in May to raise an additional $400 million
for Medicaid. Meanwhile, Governor Pat Quinn is wondering why lawmakers haven't
moved on his pension reform plan.
The only way California can escape its recurring fiscal Frankenstorms is
through reform and economic growth. The former would stimulate the latter while
the Governor's tax initiative would squelch both. Raising taxes on small
business owners when one in five Californians is out of work or employed
part-time because he can't find a full-time job is the definition of
insanity.
Once more cash starts flowing to Sacramento, taxpayers can forget about
budget and regulatory reforms that the Governor has suggested are on his agenda
after the election. The only thing Democrats in Sacramento have planned after
November is more spending.
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